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Who's next? Cuba needs a president
Experts say Castro's brother is the likely choice, but some Cuban-Americans hope for change
By: Chris Hokanson
Issue date: 2/20/08 Section: News
Castro and his socialist-communist government constantly clashed with the United States, leading to a failed invasion of the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban Missile Crisis and a trade embargo still in effect. If Americans and Cubans hope for a better relationship, some experts think a Democratic president in 2009 might start the nation on that path.
"U.S.-Cuba relations have been pretty much the same for 50 years - adamant resistance from the Cubans, and an unflinching embargo from the U.S.," Von Vacano said.
"The transition to Raul Castro will lead to more open, mixed-economy policies, which affects mainly European investments. This won't change U.S. policy, unless a Democrat wins the elections in November. He said this is likely, so a possible U.S. overture might occur if Obama is elected, less likely if Clinton is. The bans are in place owing to U.S. policies, and they will remain in place if McCain wins."
Most experts said Raul Castro is the most likely choice for the Cuban presidency, and though his charisma and leadership style are similar to his brother's, his economic policies might relax.
"Raul will definitely assume power unless something drastic happens, which I do not expect," said Par Rosson, a professor of agricultural economics and director of the Center for North American Studies. "His mode [of government] will be more market-oriented and a softer form of socialism - similar, many think, to China's economic system, but possibly with better treatment of dissent."
Though many Americans and Cuban-Americans had been hoping for a quick turnaround after Castro's removal from office, the move toward democracy could take a while.
"I don't expect any major policy changes in Cuba," Rosson said. "This is part of the transition that will be evolutionary, not revolutionary."
"U.S.-Cuba relations have been pretty much the same for 50 years - adamant resistance from the Cubans, and an unflinching embargo from the U.S.," Von Vacano said.
"The transition to Raul Castro will lead to more open, mixed-economy policies, which affects mainly European investments. This won't change U.S. policy, unless a Democrat wins the elections in November. He said this is likely, so a possible U.S. overture might occur if Obama is elected, less likely if Clinton is. The bans are in place owing to U.S. policies, and they will remain in place if McCain wins."
Most experts said Raul Castro is the most likely choice for the Cuban presidency, and though his charisma and leadership style are similar to his brother's, his economic policies might relax.
"Raul will definitely assume power unless something drastic happens, which I do not expect," said Par Rosson, a professor of agricultural economics and director of the Center for North American Studies. "His mode [of government] will be more market-oriented and a softer form of socialism - similar, many think, to China's economic system, but possibly with better treatment of dissent."
Though many Americans and Cuban-Americans had been hoping for a quick turnaround after Castro's removal from office, the move toward democracy could take a while.
"I don't expect any major policy changes in Cuba," Rosson said. "This is part of the transition that will be evolutionary, not revolutionary."
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