Spring Break
Who's next? Cuba needs a president
Experts say Castro's brother is the likely choice, but some Cuban-Americans hope for change
By: Chris Hokanson
Issue date: 2/20/08 Section: News
With Monday's announcement that Fidel Castro is ending his 49-year rule as Cuba's president, speculation has arisen about who will succeed him and what is in store for America's island neighbor.
Castro, who seized power in Cuba in 1959, announced his retirement in the state-run newspaper, Granma. Castro's Cuba has been under a strict ban on trade and travel by the United States since the revolution, but many are wondering if that's likely to end if democratic fundamentals begin to take hold.
"I'm not really surprised about this," said Claudia Avellaneda, a lecturer in political science at Texas A&M who specializes in Latin American politics. "He's been thinking about retiring for a long time, and his brother [Raul Castro] has basically been in power for the last 19 months or so. Everything has been in place to get him used to the position and the process of the government."
But that doesn't mean Raul Castro is a shoe-in for the presidency.
"There is a lot of controversy about [the next president]," Avellaneda said. "In a recent government communication, Raul said something like, 'We need to focus on finishing our duty,' which many people think means he is willing to provide an opportunity for younger generations to govern."
Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque have been mentioned as candidates for the presidency because they are significantly younger than the 76-year-old Raul. The Cuban Council of State is set to meet Sunday to select the nation's next president.
Though Castro's move from the presidency isn't surprising, the fact that he's been in poor health in recent months made people assume the transition of presidents would come after his death, not his retirement, said Diego Von Vacano, an assistant professor of political science and an expert in Latin American political theory and the democratization of Latin American countries.
"Cuban-Americans in Miami are slowly realizing that their dream of a massive uprising in Cuba upon the decline, resignation or death of Fidel Castro was just that, a dream," Von Vacano said. "Younger generations of Cuban-Americans seek dialogue over intervention in Cuba, so there will be a slow move towards moderate discussion and interaction, away from hardline demands for removing the Communist leadership."
Castro, who seized power in Cuba in 1959, announced his retirement in the state-run newspaper, Granma. Castro's Cuba has been under a strict ban on trade and travel by the United States since the revolution, but many are wondering if that's likely to end if democratic fundamentals begin to take hold.
"I'm not really surprised about this," said Claudia Avellaneda, a lecturer in political science at Texas A&M who specializes in Latin American politics. "He's been thinking about retiring for a long time, and his brother [Raul Castro] has basically been in power for the last 19 months or so. Everything has been in place to get him used to the position and the process of the government."
But that doesn't mean Raul Castro is a shoe-in for the presidency.
"There is a lot of controversy about [the next president]," Avellaneda said. "In a recent government communication, Raul said something like, 'We need to focus on finishing our duty,' which many people think means he is willing to provide an opportunity for younger generations to govern."
Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque have been mentioned as candidates for the presidency because they are significantly younger than the 76-year-old Raul. The Cuban Council of State is set to meet Sunday to select the nation's next president.
Though Castro's move from the presidency isn't surprising, the fact that he's been in poor health in recent months made people assume the transition of presidents would come after his death, not his retirement, said Diego Von Vacano, an assistant professor of political science and an expert in Latin American political theory and the democratization of Latin American countries.
"Cuban-Americans in Miami are slowly realizing that their dream of a massive uprising in Cuba upon the decline, resignation or death of Fidel Castro was just that, a dream," Von Vacano said. "Younger generations of Cuban-Americans seek dialogue over intervention in Cuba, so there will be a slow move towards moderate discussion and interaction, away from hardline demands for removing the Communist leadership."
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