Issue date: 6/2/09 Section: News

Media Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane season is here again, and expert predictions do not forecast a repeat of Hurricane Ike.

With the results of Hurricane Ike finally coming to a close, June 1 marked the beginning of the new hurricane season for the Atlantic.

There's a 50 percent chance of a normal hurricane season, according to The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.

"There is a 70 percent probability for the following scenarios: 9-14 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes," said Atmospheric Science Research Associate Brent McRoberts. "If the 'near normal' forecast verifies, 2009 may actually seem like a below-normal year based on the hurricane seasons we are accustomed to the past 15 years or so. We have actually been in what is considered the high activity era for hurricanes."

Despite the expected quiet hurricane season, hurricanes can arrive suddenly.

"August and September are prime time for storms that form in the tropical Atlantic and march across to North America," said John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M and Texas State Climatologist. "Storms can form in the Gulf of Mexico as early as June, and those can be a problem because there's often not much warning. Some coastal communities need three days warning to evacuate, and Gulf storms may not provide that. "

Potential trouble can be predicted by a storm from two years ago, Humberto, according to Nielsen-Gammon. Humberto made landfall near High Island less than a day after it became a tropical depression. It gave little warning.

"If a hurricane were to affect the Brazos Valley worse than, say, Ike, it would most likely have to make landfall between Matagorda Bay and Galveston," said KBTX meteorologist Bob French. "The stronger the storm, the more likely that we would get hurricane force winds this far inland. The slower-moving the storm, the more likely we would receive flooding rains."

2009 hurricane names:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

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